The Bellingham Plan: Growth by Delusion, Not by Reality

Bellingham’s planners have unveiled their 2025 Comprehensive Plan draft — “The Bellingham Plan” — forecasting a future full of new residents, new jobs, and new homes. The document projects by 2045:

• 135,829 residents

• 66,109 housing units

• 89,768 jobs

Those numbers sound confident. But they aren’t rooted in reality — they’re recycled optimism from a city that’s already missed its targets once before.

The Growth Projection That Ignores Reality

Between 2005 and 2025, Bellingham’s population grew roughly 33%, adding about 20,000 people. But during that same period, median home prices exploded from $220,000 to over $700,000 — far outpacing incomes that crept from ~$45,000 to barely $79,000.

Now, despite being officially ranked the most unaffordable small city in the country, planners are forecasting higher growth than ever before.

It’s delusional thinking. Affordability isn’t a slogan — it’s math. And math says: people don’t move where they can’t afford to live.

The Mirage of “Housing Variety”

The Bellingham Plan lays out a mix of future housing “types” — but when you read the fine print, it’s mostly an apartment buildout disguised as variety:

BUT BEFORE YOU READ ANYTHING...KNOW THAT THE CITY IS INCLUDING EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES in their projections, but they won't point that out...

...But the "Pie in the Sky" projections are all there with ACTUAL HOMES ALREADY making it look like the growth is "BALANCED" but in reality 90% of what is going to be built going forward will be MULTI-FAMILY RENTALS and non-ownable.

Housing Type	Share of Future Units	Approx. Units	City’s Framing
Single-Family Detached (including existing homes!)	35–38% (including existing homes!)	≈ 23,000–25,000 (existing homes ~19,000-25,000 = 6,000)	“Preserve character / reduce footprint”
Middle Housing (duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhomes, cottages, ADUs)	≈ 30% (existing numbers are 5600)	≈ 19,000–20,000 (5600-20,000 =14,400!)	“Missing middle choice”
Multifamily (5+ units)	32–35% (existing units 18,500)	≈ 21,000–23,000 (existing units 18,500-23,000=1500!!)	“Urban village density”
Group/Special Housing	<3%	≈ 1,500–2,000	“Assisted / institutional”

That means over 90% of Bellingham’s “future housing” is expected to be rental-based or high-density WHERRE THE CITY IS FORCING ALL THE GROWTH IN THE SINGLE FAMILY ZONED NEIGHBORHOODS!!!

And the justification? The city claims it can shrink its Urban Growth Area (UGA) by 1,200 acres because it can “fit” everyone inside city limits. In their model, every lot will somehow redevelop, every homeowner will willingly densify, and land-use physics will bend to policy slogans.

“Good Feelings” as an Economic Policy

The plan’s reasoning rests on faith, not economics:

“Bellingham will continue to attract new residents because of its quality of life, climate action, and urban amenities.” - Bellingham Mayor

In other words: magic beans and good feelings will pay your mortgage.

But the plan’s Economic Development section projects only 0.4% annual job growth, half the population rate. That means fewer local jobs per resident and even greater dependence on outside incomes — retirees, remote workers, and investors.

That’s not economic vitality — that’s gentrification in slow motion.

The “Unaffordability Matrix”

Using state and local data, here’s the 20-year reality:

Year	Median Home Price	Median Income	Price-to-Income Ratio	Median Rent	Rent Share of Income
2005	$219,000	$45,000	4.8x	$750	20%
2015	$360,000	$56,000	6.4×	$1,050	23%
2025	$700,000	$78,000	9.0x	$1,850	38%

That’s a doubling in price-to-income ratio — and even more telling: The city’s own permit data shows it met its “housing unit” growth target only because of a 10-fold surge in apartments, not ownership housing.

They promised balance in 2005. They delivered imbalance by 2025. And now, they’re writing another plan based on the same illusion.

What They Said in 2005 (and What Really Happened)

Back in 2005, Bellingham’s Comprehensive Plan claimed the city had “ample land capacity” and projected a steady mix of new homes “for all income levels.”They were wrong on both counts:

• Land was consumed by city acquisitions (Greenways, Watershed, and open-space purchases).

• Housing growth was dominated by multifamily rentals, not detached homes.

• Single-family building permits stagnated after 2010.

Only 2400 single family detached homes were permitted over the past 20 years.

The city is LYING that 6000 single family homes will be created. They didn't allow more than 2400 homes since 2005, when housing was AFFORDABLE, but somehow now that we are to expect the same group who only delivered unaffordability are going to deliver now?

Instead of admitting the model failed, planners are now doubling down on the same premise: that affordability can be legislated while ownership is legislated away.

The city is using your street for overflow parking

This parking "study" is looking at a complex that has OVER 200 parking spots in a garage. Yet the owner was FORCED BY THE CITY to pay TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS to have a CERTIFIED PARKING CONSULTING COMPANY register parking "availablility" over a set amount of time. Notice that the company was looking at available parking on streets in neighborhoods 1/2 mile away!

Why?

Because the city wants to be able to jam NO PARKING DEVELOPMENTS everywhere.

Takeaway

Bellingham is planning for population growth that can’t afford to happen — and removing the very land that could make it possible if it did.

This isn’t forward-thinking. It’s history repeating itself, with a thicker binder and deceptive graphics to hide the truth of their intentions, and deny the results they are responsible for.

Learn More

• Read the draft: Exhibit B – Draft Bellingham Plan (2025)

• Read our breakdown of the 2025 Bellingham Comprehensive Plan

• Explore our analysis: “Regulatory Scarcity: How the City Manufactures Shortage” — coming soon on RealHousingReform.org

• Follow @RealIssuesPodcast for episode updates: “Growth by Faith, Not Facts.”